We can provide great news about memories! (updated)
We analyze the situation and then look ahead a bit.
Some of our readers may still remember the times when memories came up as a negligible factor in PC assembly, arguably the cheapest components in our much-loved machine. It wasn’t that long ago, we have to look back to roughly 2016, we were able to live “happy times of peace” at the time, at least compared to the current prices anyway. What happened after 2016? Many are looking for an answer, including the Chinese authorities, who claim that Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., SK Hynix Inc. and Micron Technology have entered into a joint background deal, causing prices to explode - the three giants are virtually total market. Anyway, the investigation has not been completed since then, the antitrust office allegedly found serious evidence of cartel, but unfortunately the exact details were not disclosed. From the point of view of one-time buyers, this is actually just a matter of detail, the point for them is how much money they have to leave at the checkout. Well, here comes the latest TrendForce study.
First of all, we will clarify what predictions will be made here. TrendForce, a market research and analysis company, publishes its forecasts on a quarterly basis and can be considered a very familiar source on the subject. Now, by the way, we've scratched the predictions of the Department of Memory (DRAMeXchange), which will be discussed below.
DRAM market prices in December last year showed no significant change compared to the previous month, the turnover did not reach the level that would have caused a marked turnaround. Regarding the contract prices of mainstream products, it could be said that the average price of 8,0 GB modules was around $ 60, even those with a capacity of 4,0 GB were approx. They ran around $ 30 - but the downward trend seemed to be already emerging.
According to the report, the biggest problem in the DRAM market right now is that the first quarter tends to produce traditionally weak demand. This alone would not be a huge problem, except that the industry's output is not geared to this, meaning that stock levels could be higher than expected - to some extent, production for warehouses would begin. There aren’t really many ways to make up the difference, manufacturers are using the simplest tool, which is to try to boost demand by breaking down prices. Under the former, the price of an 8GB module could drop to $ 55 in January (even below that level!), And the chances of another 10% drop in February and March are very strong. Earlier predictions predicted a fall of roughly 15%, now it looks like it could be 20 percent! Another good news from a consumer perspective is that this trend is projected to continue for a long time, as supply could permanently outpace demand, so this price drop could take up to four quarters (from the fourth quarter of 2018).
In the face of weak demand, DRAM suppliers and OEMs have also estimated that they will produce more modest results than expected in the medium and long term - apparently the reason for the lower profitability. The seriousness of the situation is well characterized by the fact that this year's revenues could fall by as much as a tenth (some forecasts expect a loss), so the “golden age” experienced in 2017 will be a dream this year.
What follows from the above? In our opinion, if you calculate with 4,0-8,0 GB of system memory, it may be advisable to watch the prices around February, and if you calculate with 16,0 GB, you can save more in March. Obviously, the main question now is how the first-quarter price drop can spur the willingness to buy, as this will determine the extent of the further correction. In fact, after the 10-20% price cut projected for this quarter, we are (somewhat) friendlier numbers looking back at us when we think of a larger package. On the other hand, for a more modest copy (eg 4,0 GB capacity), we can certainly not talk about dramatic savings: approx. The savings can be 1-000 forints.
